NZ General Election 2026

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Potential flips

Henderson: Labour ahead of the 2023 winner by 4,745 votes

Henderson 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)
- LAB TWYFORD 51.2%10,054
- NAT NICHOLAS 27.0%5,309
LAB leads by 4,745 · 41% counted
Wellington North 2023: LAB (notional, boundary change)
- GRN PAUL 45.4%10,062
- LAB VERRALL 29.0%6,438
GRN leads by 3,624 · 36% counted
Tāmaki 2023: ACT (notional, boundary change)
- NAT MURALIDHAR 42.0%9,357
- LAB HARRIS 29.0%6,464
NAT leads by 2,893 · 46% counted

Potential flips: 9 potential flips
Electorate	Leading · second	Lead	Counted
Te Tai Tonga 2023: TPM (notional, boundary change)	LAB RAMSDEN 32.9%GRN TE MORENGA 23.1%	1,597	30%
Wairarapa 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB MCANULTY 46.7%NAT BUTTERICK 39.8%	583	18%
Banks Peninsula 2023: NAT	LAB MCLELLAN 43.9%NAT WEENINK 37.6%	1,822	41%
Wigram 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB YANZICK 45.1%NAT SUMMERFIELD 39.2%	1,208	28%
Hutt South 2023: NAT (notional, boundary change)	LAB ANDERSEN 45.8%NAT BISHOP 42.5%	828	40%
Nelson Close2023: LAB	NAT CAMERON 43.5%LAB BOYACK 42.2%	372	51%

Every electorate

71 electorates · north to south · 2023 is the notional result on the new boundaries where they changed

Every electorate: who leads now, lead, counted, party-vote leader and 2023 holder
	Leading	Second				Party vote
Northland	NAT MCCALLUM 45.3%	LAB LATIMER 23.2%	4,375	22.1%	26%	NAT 30.8%	NAT 12.4%Boundary change
WhangāreiClose	NAT BUDD 40.1%	LAB PAYINDA 39.2%	220	0.9%	33%	NAT 30.7%	NAT 27.4%Boundary change
Auckland Central	GRN SWARBRICK 47.6%	NAT KINSER 36.5%	2,228	11.1%	37%	LAB 26.0%	GRN 6.4%Boundary change
Kaipara ki Mahurangi	NAT ROWE 51.3%	LAB SWINBURN 17.6%	7,250	33.7%	37%	NAT 37.6%	NAT 41.0%Boundary change
Whangaparāoa	NAT MITCHELL 67.8%	LAB MULLER PALLARÈS 25.1%	12,734	42.7%	57%	NAT 41.3%	NAT 50.5%Boundary change
East Coast Bays	NAT STANFORD 65.5%	LAB MCENROE 19.8%	9,903	45.7%	42%	NAT 45.9%	NAT 53.1%Boundary change
North Shore	NAT WATTS 59.7%	LAB COLLINS 23.6%	7,830	36.1%	38%	NAT 42.4%	NAT 40.3%Boundary change
Upper Harbour	NAT BREWER 54.4%	LAB BARAL 25.6%	5,361	28.7%	39%	NAT 41.5%	NAT 37.0%Boundary change
Northcote	NAT BIDOIS 47.1%	LAB HALBERT 39.6%	1,687	7.5%	36%	NAT 32.1%	NAT 23.7%Boundary change
HendersonPotential flip	LAB TWYFORD 51.2%	NAT NICHOLAS 27.0%	4,745	24.2%	41%	LAB 44.9%	NAT 2.4%Boundary change
TāmakiPotential flip	NAT MURALIDHAR 42.0%	LAB HARRIS 29.0%	2,893	13.0%	46%	NAT 41.6%	ACT 9.1%Boundary change
Glendene	LAB SEPULONI 49.8%	NAT KUMAR 25.1%	4,890	24.7%	32%	LAB 42.8%	LAB 7.5%Boundary change
Epsom	ACT SEYMOUR 36.3%	NAT GOLDSMITH 29.7%	1,200	6.6%	36%	NAT 42.4%	ACT 16.9%Boundary change
Mt Albert	LAB WHITE 39.6%	NAT LEE 27.8%	523	11.9%	19%	LAB 27.3%	LAB 3.7%Boundary change
Pakuranga	NAT BROWN 67.3%	LAB MATTHEWS 23.9%	9,647	43.4%	41%	NAT 48.0%	NAT 52.7%Boundary change
Maungakiekie	NAT FLEMING 45.8%	LAB RADHAKRISHNAN 37.8%	1,734	8.0%	44%	LAB 33.0%	NAT 11.5%Boundary change
Botany	NAT LUXON 65.9%	LAB LEAVASA 24.7%	8,449	41.1%	36%	NAT 52.4%	NAT 53.9%Boundary change
Mt RoskillClose	NAT CHEUNG 45.0%	LAB WOOD 44.0%	155	1.0%	28%	NAT 34.9%	NAT 9.2%Boundary change
Ōtāhuhu	LAB SALESA 68.3%	NAT ARYA 16.2%	7,404	52.2%	44%	LAB 63.8%	LAB 28.6%Boundary change
Waitākere	LAB WALTERS 41.8%	NAT LOHENI 31.5%	2,160	10.2%	27%	LAB 32.8%	LAB 0.9%Boundary change
Coromandel	NAT SIMPSON 55.1%	LAB BENNETT 18.2%	10,949	36.9%	49%	NAT 35.1%	NAT 37.1%
Māngere	LAB SOSENE 64.5%	NAT BOURKE 12.0%	7,549	52.5%	39%	LAB 64.9%	LAB 40.7%Boundary change
Takanini	NAT NAKHLE 47.7%	LAB SINGH 43.1%	613	4.7%	37%	NAT 38.8%	NAT 24.1%Boundary change
Manurewa	LAB WILLIAMS 69.8%	NAT MAJEED 16.2%	6,348	53.6%	32%	LAB 60.3%	LAB 24.4%Boundary change
Papakura	NAT CHATTERTON 57.6%	LAB KANONGATA'A 27.5%	4,837	30.1%	35%	NAT 38.0%	NAT 30.4%Boundary change
Port Waikato	NAT PAUL 51.1%	LAB BRACHI 23.4%	5,520	27.7%	35%	NAT 38.5%	NAT 31.5%
Mt Maunganui	NAT RUTHERFORD 58.4%	LAB GREY 20.8%	9,260	37.6%	48%	NAT 39.5%	NAT 31.2%Boundary change
Waikato	NAT VAN DE MOLEN 57.9%	LAB TOKO 25.3%	7,776	32.6%	38%	NAT 39.7%	NAT 43.5%
Hamilton EastClose	NAT HAMILTON 45.3%	LAB DANSEY 44.9%	99	0.5%	44%	NAT 31.8%	NAT 13.5%
Hamilton West	NAT POTAKA 42.6%	LAB WILLIAMSON 36.1%	1,438	6.5%	42%	LAB 32.9%	NAT 17.0%
Tauranga	NAT UFFINDELL 56.4%	LAB TINETTI 25.4%	7,552	31.0%	55%	NAT 38.5%	NAT 26.0%Boundary change
East Cape	NAT KIRKPATRICK 48.7%	LAB LUXTON 34.3%	2,850	14.3%	29%	NAT 30.6%	NAT 8.0%
Rotorua	NAT MCCLAY 50.7%	LAB WANG 36.5%	2,776	14.2%	36%	NAT 32.6%	NAT 26.1%Boundary change
Taranaki-King Country	NAT KURIGER 50.1%	LAB PATTEMORE 22.0%	5,660	28.0%	37%	NAT 35.6%	NAT 35.1%Boundary change
Taupō	NAT UPSTON 61.6%	LAB FLATT 27.0%	9,136	34.6%	38%	NAT 37.3%	NAT 37.9%
Napier	NAT NIMON 51.0%	LAB HEDLEY 35.0%	3,555	16.0%	32%	NAT 34.4%	NAT 23.8%Boundary change
New Plymouth	NAT MACLEOD 56.5%	LAB CLINTON-GOHDES 36.5%	4,864	20.0%	36%	NAT 34.9%	NAT 16.3%
Whanganui	NAT BATES 51.4%	LAB ROBERTS 37.1%	3,255	14.3%	31%	NAT 30.7%	NAT 15.3%Boundary change
Tukituki	NAT WEDD 52.5%	LAB SCOTT 24.8%	5,902	27.7%	30%	NAT 35.4%	NAT 23.5%Boundary change
Rangitīkei	NAT REDMAYNE 42.6%	LAB SEVERINSEN 32.1%	2,320	10.5%	27%	NAT 30.2%	NAT 20.0%Boundary change
Palmerston North	LAB UTIKERE 48.7%	NAT BANSAL 39.1%	2,037	9.6%	38%	LAB 33.9%	LAB 3.5%Boundary change
WairarapaPotential flip	LAB MCANULTY 46.7%	NAT BUTTERICK 39.8%	583	6.9%	18%	LAB 30.3%	NAT 6.6%Boundary change
Kapiti	NAT COSTLEY 47.9%	LAB HANDFORD 42.8%	1,485	5.1%	42%	LAB 31.8%	NAT 9.0%Boundary change
Remutaka	LAB HIPKINS 58.7%	NAT LATEEF 19.3%	9,628	39.4%	33%	LAB 43.4%	LAB 20.5%Boundary change
NelsonClosePotential flip	NAT CAMERON 43.5%	LAB BOYACK 42.2%	372	1.3%	51%	LAB 29.4%	LAB 0.1%
Kenepuru	LAB EDMONDS 57.8%	NAT EVETTS 25.2%	6,070	32.7%	41%	LAB 44.2%	LAB 16.3%Boundary change
Wellington NorthPotential flip	GRN PAUL 45.4%	LAB VERRALL 29.0%	3,624	16.3%	36%	GRN 32.9%	LAB 0.5%Boundary change
Hutt SouthPotential flip	LAB ANDERSEN 45.8%	NAT BISHOP 42.5%	828	3.3%	40%	LAB 35.3%	NAT 2.5%Boundary change
Kaikōura	NAT SMITH 49.6%	LAB FLIGHT 29.1%	4,977	20.5%	39%	NAT 35.0%	NAT 27.2%
West Coast-Tasman	NAT MILNE 43.1%	LAB PATERSON 28.9%	2,931	14.2%	27%	NAT 29.3%	NAT 2.4%
Waimakariri	NAT DOOCEY 53.9%	LAB ROSEWARNE 30.8%	4,599	23.1%	25%	NAT 32.9%	NAT 28.0%
Selwyn	NAT GRIGG 56.0%	LAB GAUTAM 21.4%	8,811	34.6%	41%	NAT 36.6%	NAT 42.0%Boundary change
Christchurch East	LAB DAVIDSON 51.8%	NAT DAVIDS 25.8%	6,394	26.0%	36%	LAB 38.4%	LAB 7.4%Boundary change
Ilam	NAT CAMPBELL 48.0%	LAB JAMIESON 32.7%	3,052	15.3%	37%	NAT 34.1%	NAT 19.7%Boundary change
Christchurch Central	LAB HAMPTON 41.9%	NAT STEPHENS 28.4%	2,744	13.5%	32%	LAB 35.0%	LAB 7.5%Boundary change
WigramPotential flip	LAB YANZICK 45.1%	NAT SUMMERFIELD 39.2%	1,208	5.8%	28%	LAB 35.2%	NAT 7.2%Boundary change
Banks PeninsulaPotential flip	LAB MCLELLAN 43.9%	NAT WEENINK 37.6%	1,822	6.3%	41%	LAB 29.2%	NAT 0.8%
Rangitata	NAT MEAGER 61.5%	LAB MALAMA 24.5%	9,536	37.0%	51%	NAT 36.7%	NAT 26.8%
Wellington Bays	GRN GENTER 39.7%	LAB RENNEY 36.3%	882	3.4%	41%	LAB 33.9%	GRN 8.6%Boundary change
Waitaki	NAT ANDERSON 48.8%	LAB O'CONNOR 30.1%	4,668	18.6%	43%	NAT 36.5%	NAT 27.5%
Southland	NAT MOONEY 56.3%	LAB MCDONALD 23.9%	7,093	32.4%	43%	NAT 40.0%	NAT 43.5%Boundary change
Dunedin	LAB BROOKING 45.1%	GRN HERNANDEZ 24.5%	4,212	20.7%	41%	LAB 32.5%	LAB 18.9%
Taieri	LAB LEARY 44.4%	NAT FRENCH 29.6%	2,796	14.8%	36%	LAB 34.6%	LAB 3.4%
Invercargill	NAT SIMMONDS 56.4%	LAB LEE 33.5%	4,587	22.9%	29%	NAT 32.6%	NAT 27.6%Boundary change
Te Tai TokerauClose	TPM EDWARDS 30.8%	GRN LYNDON 29.4%	258	1.4%	28%	LAB 44.6%	TPM 1.9%
Tāmaki Makaurau	TPM KAIPARA 54.6%	LAB LEONI 23.9%	4,248	30.7%	28%	LAB 47.4%	TPM 0.2%
Hauraki-Waikato	TPM MAIPI-CLARKE 69.3%	LAB KIRIONA 28.5%	6,793	40.8%	28%	LAB 49.6%	TPM 11.6%
Waiariki	TPM WAITITI 45.4%	GRN WAIKATO 37.8%	1,582	7.6%	34%	LAB 45.7%	TPM 54.9%
Te Tai Hauāuru	TPM NGAREWA-PACKER 55.6%	LAB KĀTENE 41.1%	2,377	14.6%	30%	LAB 46.1%	TPM 35.1%
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti	LAB TANGAERE-MANUEL 42.2%	TPM MAXWELL 32.7%	1,649	9.5%	21%	LAB 54.4%	LAB 9.8%Boundary change
Te Tai TongaPotential flip	LAB RAMSDEN 32.9%	GRN TE MORENGA 23.1%	1,597	9.8%	30%	LAB 40.7%	TPM 10.1%Boundary change

71 electorates